Comparing Three Different Anti-Programmed Death-Ligand 1 Antibodies in Immunohistochemical Evaluation of Combined Chemoimmunotherapy Response in Patients With NSCLC: A Prospective Study.

Introduction: Multiple programmed death-ligand 1 (PD-L1) immunohistochemistry assays performed using different antibodies including DAKO 22C3, DAKO 28-8, and Ventana SP142 PD-L1-predictive markers for response to various immune checkpoint inhibitors in NSCLC-have been approved in several countries. The differences in multiple PD-L1 immunohistochemistry assay results in predicting the therapeutic response to combined chemoimmunotherapy in patients with NSCLC remain unclear. Methods: In this multicenter prospective observational study, we monitored 70 patients with advanced NSCLC treated with combined chemoimmunotherapy at 10 institutions in Japan. The expression of PD-L1 in pretreatment tumors was evaluated using the 22C3, 28-8, and SP142 assays in all patients. Results: The PD-L1 level in tumor cells determined using the 22C3 assay was the highest among the three assays performed with different antibodies. According to the 22C3 assay results, the PD-L1 tumor proportion score greater than or equal to 50% group had a significantly longer progression-free survival period than the PD-L1 tumor proportion score less than 50% group. Nevertheless, the other assays did not reveal remarkable differences in the objective response rate or progression-free survival. Conclusions: In our study, PD-L1 expression determined using the 22C3 assay was more correlated with the therapeutic response of patients with NSCLC treated with combined chemoimmunotherapy than that determined using the 28-8 and SP142 assays. Therefore, the 22C3 assay may be useful for clinical decision-making for patients with NSCLC treated with combined chemoimmunotherapy. Trial registration number: UMIN 000043958.

Impact of HER2-low expression on the efficacy of endocrine therapy with or without CDK4/6 inhibitor in HR-positive/HER2-negative metastatic breast cancer: A prospective study.

BACKGROUND: CDK4/6 inhibitors in combination with traditional endocrine therapy (ET) have become the recommended first-line therapy for HR-positive/HER2-negative metastatic breast cancer (MBC). The aim of this prospective study was to evaluate the relationship between HER2-low expression and clinical outcomes in HR-positive/HER2-negative MBC patients receiving ET with or without CDK4/6 inhibitors. METHODS: Between April 2016 and November 2019, 233 women with HR-positive/HER2-negative MBC who received ET with or without CDK4/6 inhibitors were enrolled into the study. The primary endpoint was progression-free survival (PFS). Statistical analysis included descriptive statistics, Kaplan-Meier curves, and Cox proportional hazards models. RESULTS: HER2-low and HER2-zero subgroups in the CDK4/6 inhibitor plus ET cohort showed no significant difference in the median PFS (10.9 vs. 8.0 months; hazard ratio: 0.92; 95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.64-1. 30; p = 0.65), while HER2-low subgroup showed a significantly shorter median PFS compared to the HER2-zero subgroup in the ET alone cohort (5.6 vs. 17.0 months; hazard ratio: 2.82; 95% CI: 1.34-5.93; p = 0.0044). Moreover, the objective response rate was significantly lower in the HER2-low subgroup than the HER2-zero subgroup in the ET alone cohort (10.5% vs. 40.0%, p = 0.047). Lastly, no significant difference was observed in the overall survival between the HER2-low and HER2-zero subgroups in both cohorts. CONCLUSION: This study suggested that HER2-low expression may predict the efficacy of ET but not that of CDK4/6 inhibitor plus ET in HR-positive/HER2-negative MBC patients. The results of this study highlight the importance of integrating HER2 status in tailoring personalized treatment strategies for HR-positive MBC.

Causal Association Between Subtypes of Excessive Daytime Sleepiness and Risk of Cardiovascular Diseases.

BACKGROUND: Excessive daytime sleepiness (EDS), experienced in 10% to 20% of the population, has been associated with cardiovascular disease and death. However, the condition is heterogeneous and is prevalent in individuals having short and long sleep duration. We sought to clarify the relationship between sleep duration subtypes of EDS with cardiovascular outcomes, accounting for these subtypes. METHODS AND RESULTS: We defined 3 sleep duration subtypes of excessive daytime sleepiness: normal (6-9 hours), short (<6 hours), and long (>9 hours), and compared these with a nonsleepy, normal-sleep-duration reference group. We analyzed their associations with incident myocardial infarction (MI) and stroke using medical records of 355 901 UK Biobank participants and performed 2-sample Mendelian randomization for each outcome. Compared with healthy sleep, long-sleep EDS was associated with an 83% increased rate of MI (hazard ratio, 1.83 [95% CI, 1.21-2.77]) during 8.2-year median follow-up, adjusting for multiple health and sociodemographic factors. Mendelian randomization analysis provided supporting evidence of a causal role for a genetic long-sleep EDS subtype in MI (inverse-variance weighted ß=1.995, P=0.001). In contrast, we did not find evidence that other subtypes of EDS were associated with incident MI or any associations with stroke (P>0.05). CONCLUSIONS: Our study suggests the previous evidence linking EDS with increased cardiovascular disease risk may be primarily driven by the effect of its long-sleep subtype on higher risk of MI. Underlying mechanisms remain to be investigated but may involve sleep irregularity and circadian disruption, suggesting a need for novel interventions in this population.

Cholecystectomy is associated with a higher risk of irritable bowel syndrome in the UK Biobank: a prospective cohort study.

Background: Recent studies have shown that bile acids are essential in irritable bowel syndrome (IBS) pathology, and cholecystectomy has direct effects on bile acid metabolism. However, whether cholecystectomy increases the risk of IBS remains unclear. We aimed to investigate the association between cholecystectomy and IBS risk in the UK Biobank (UKB). Methods: This study is a prospective analysis of 413,472 participants who were free of IBS, inflammatory bowel disease, cancer, or common benign digestive tract diseases. We identified incidents of IBS through self-reporting or links to primary healthcare and hospitalization data. We evaluated hazard ratios (HRs) adjusted for sociodemographic characteristics, health behaviours, comorbidities, and medications. Results: During a median follow-up period of 12.7 years, we observed 15,503 new cases of IBS. Participants with a history of cholecystectomy had a 46% higher risk of IBS than those without (HR = 1.46, 95% CI: 1.32-1.60), and further subtype analysis showed that the risk of IBS with diarrhoea was significantly higher than the risk of IBS without diarrhoea (HR = 1.71, 95% CI: 1.30-2.25 vs. HR = 1.42, 95% CI: 1.28-1.58). The overall covariate-adjusted HRs for IBS were similar between the group with both cholecystectomy and gallstones (HR = 1.45, 95% CI: 1.32-1.58) and the group with cholecystectomy without gallstones (HR = 1.50, 95% CI: 1.36-1.67) when the group without both cholecystectomy and gallstones was used as a reference. The overall covariate-adjusted HR was not significantly different in the group without cholecystectomy with gallstones (HR = 1.18, 95% CI: 0.95-1.47). The positive association of cholecystectomy with IBS risk did not change when stratifying the data based on age, sex, BMI, smoking, alcohol consumption, healthy diet, quality sleep, physical activity, type 2 diabetes, hypertension, hyperlipidaemia, mental illness, NSAID intake, or acid inhibitor intake. Sensitivity analyses, including propensity score matching analysis and lagging the exposure for two or four years, indicated that the effects were robust. Conclusion: Cholecystectomy was associated with a higher risk of IBS, especially IBS with diarrhoea. Additional prospective randomized controlled and experimental studies are warranted to further validate the association and to explore the relevant biological mechanisms.

Short-term recurrence rate of male urethral stricture and its predictors after treatment with optical internal urethrotomy: Prospective Cohort Study at a tertiary center in Ethiopia.

Background: Although optical internal urethrotomy is popular among the urologists due to its simplicity and safety, urethroplasty is considered the gold standard treatment for urethral strictures. This study aims to determine the 1-year recurrence rate of urethral strictures after optical urethrotomy and identify predictors of recurrence in a tertiary center in Ethiopia. Methods: A prospective observational cohort study was conducted on 80 male patients who underwent optical urethrotomy from November 2019 to August 2020 in a tertiary center in Ethiopia. Logistic regression was used to analyze the association between dependent and independent variables, with a P-value of <0.05 considered statistically significant. Results: The mean and median age (±SD) of patients at the time of the procedure were 54.76 (±14.74) and 58 years with a range [20-78], respectively. Urethral discharge was the most common etiology identified in 39 (48.75%) of patients. Eleven (13.75%) patients had no identifiable etiology for their urethral stricture disease.The majority of patients presented with at least one voiding lower urinary tract symptoms.Sixty-eight (85%) patients out of the total had a single stricture and 12 (15%) had multiple strictures. The location of the stricture was in the bulbar urethra on cystourethrography in 83% of the patients. The 1-year recurrence rate of urethral stricture after optical urethrotomy was 35% in our study.The number of strictures and the presence of hypertension were independent predictors of recurrence of urethral stricture within 1-year after treatment with optical urethrotomy (AOR=15.35, 95% CI: 2.92-80.61, P=0.00; AOR=19.47, 95% CI: 2.11-178.98, P=0.01, respectively). Conclusions: Our study identified that multiple strictures, and the presence of hypertension are associated with an increased recurrence rate in the first postoperative year.

A template for the authoring of statistical analysis plans.

A number of principal investigators may have limited access to biostatisticians, a lack of biostatistical training, or no requirement to complete a timely statistical analysis plan (SAP). SAPs completed early will identify design or implementation weak points, improve protocols, remove the temptation for p-hacking, and enable proper peer review by stakeholders considering funding the trial. An SAP completed at the same time as the study protocol might be the only comprehensive method for at once optimizing sample size, identifying bias, and applying rigor to study design. This ordered corpus of SAP sections with detailed definitions and a variety of examples represents an omnibus of best practice methods offered by biostatistical practitioners inside and outside of industry. The article presents a protocol template for clinical research design, enabling statisticians, from beginners to advanced.

Association between inflammatory potential of diet and periodontitis disease risks: Results from a Korean population-based cohort study.

AIM: To examine the association between a pro-inflammatory diet, estimated using the energy-adjusted dietary inflammatory index (E-DII), and the risk of periodontitis. MATERIALS AND METHODS: Study subjects from the Korean Genome and Epidemiology Study Health Examinee (KoGES_HEXA) cohort were included for cross-sectional analysis (n = 168,378) using multivariate logistic regression and prospective analysis (n = 160,397) using Cox proportional hazard models respectively. DII and E-DII scores were calculated based on the intake reported on a validated semi-quantitative food frequency questionnaire (SQ-FFQ). RESULTS: Cox proportional hazard models revealed a significantly increased risk of incident periodontitis in individuals consuming high E-DII (more pro-inflammatory) diets in the total population (HRquartile4vs1 = 1.29; 95% CI: 1.13-1.48; ptrend <.001) and in both men (HRquartile4vs1 = 1.36; 95% CI: 1.07-1.73; ptrend = 0.02) and women (HRquartile4vs1 = 1.27; 95% CI: 1.08-1.50; ptrend = .002). The association remained significant even after excluding cases diagnosed early in the follow-up. In the cross-sectional analysis, a significant association was observed between the E-DII score and the prevalence of periodontitis among all study subjects (ORquartile4vs1 = 1.17; 95% CI: 1.03-1.34; ptrend = 0.01) and men (ORquartile4vs1 = 1.28; 95%CI: 1.01-1.63; ptrend <.001); however, the association did not reach statistical significance in women (ORquartile4vs1 = 1.13; 95% CI: 0.96-1.33; ptrend <.001). CONCLUSIONS: Findings from the current study support the hypothesis that diets with high pro-inflammatory potential increase the risk of periodontitis.

Real-world outcomes of 54-week vedolizumab therapy and response durability after treatment discontinuation in ulcerative colitis: results from a multicenter prospective POLONEZ study.

Background: Vedolizumab is a gut-selective anti-lymphocyte trafficking agent used to treat ulcerative colitis (UC) and Crohn's disease. Objectives: We aimed to evaluate the effectiveness, safety, and durability of the therapeutic effect of vedolizumab after treatment discontinuation in a real-world cohort of patients with UC treated in Poland. Design: This was a multicenter, prospective study involving patients with moderate to severely active UC from 12 centers in Poland who qualified for reimbursed treatment with vedolizumab between February and November 2019. Methods: The primary endpoints were clinical response (⩾2-point improvement from baseline on partial Mayo score) and clinical remission (partial Mayo score 0-1), including steroid-free remission, at week 54. Other outcomes included response durability at 26 weeks after treatment discontinuation, identification of predictors of response and remission, and safety assessment. Results: In all, 100 patients with UC were enrolled (55 biologic naïve and 45 biologic exposed). At baseline, 68% of patients were on corticosteroids and 45% on immunomodulators. Clinical response was observed in 62% of patients, clinical remission in 50%, and steroid-free remission in 42.6% at week 54. Within 26 weeks after treatment discontinuation, 37% of patients who maintained response by week 54 relapsed. The decreased number of liquid stools and rectal bleeding and endoscopic response at week 14 were predictive factors for response at week 54. Time from diagnosis ranging 2-5 years, decreased stool frequency, and non-concomitant use of corticosteroids at baseline and at week 14 were predictive factors for remission at week 54. Partial Mayo score < 3 with no subscale score > 1 at week 54 was a predictive factor for durable response after treatment discontinuation. The rate of serious adverse events related to treatment was 3.63 per 100 patient-years. Conclusion: Vedolizumab is effective and safe in UC treatment in Polish patients. However, the relapse rate after the treatment cessation was high. Registration: ENCePP (EUPAS34119).

Circulating insulin-like growth factors and risks of overall, aggressive and early-onset prostate cancer: a collaborative analysis of 20 prospective studies and Mendelian randomization analysis.

BACKGROUND: Previous studies had limited power to assess the associations of circulating insulin-like growth factors (IGFs) and IGF-binding proteins (IGFBPs) with clinically relevant prostate cancer as a primary endpoint, and the association of genetically predicted IGF-I with aggressive prostate cancer is not known. We aimed to investigate the associations of IGF-I, IGF-II, IGFBP-1, IGFBP-2 and IGFBP-3 concentrations with overall, aggressive and early-onset prostate cancer. METHODS: Prospective analysis of biomarkers using the Endogenous Hormones, Nutritional Biomarkers and Prostate Cancer Collaborative Group dataset (up to 20 studies, 17 009 prostate cancer cases, including 2332 aggressive cases). Odds ratios (OR) and 95% confidence intervals (CI) for prostate cancer were estimated using conditional logistic regression. For IGF-I, two-sample Mendelian randomization (MR) analysis was undertaken using instruments identified using UK Biobank (158 444 men) and outcome data from PRACTICAL (up to 85 554 cases, including 15 167 aggressive cases). Additionally, we used colocalization to rule out confounding by linkage disequilibrium. RESULTS: In observational analyses, IGF-I was positively associated with risks of overall (OR per 1 SD = 1.09: 95% CI 1.07, 1.11), aggressive (1.09: 1.03, 1.16) and possibly early-onset disease (1.11: 1.00, 1.24); associations were similar in MR analyses (OR per 1 SD = 1.07: 1.00, 1.15; 1.10: 1.01, 1.20; and 1.13; 0.98, 1.30, respectively). Colocalization also indicated a shared signal for IGF-I and prostate cancer (PP4: 99%). Men with higher IGF-II (1.06: 1.02, 1.11) and IGFBP-3 (1.08: 1.04, 1.11) had higher risks of overall prostate cancer, whereas higher IGFBP-1 was associated with a lower risk (0.95: 0.91, 0.99); these associations were attenuated following adjustment for IGF-I. CONCLUSIONS: These findings support the role of IGF-I in the development of prostate cancer, including for aggressive disease.

Changes in high-risk sexual behavior, HIV and other STI testing, and PrEP use during the COVID-19 pandemic in a longitudinal cohort of adolescent men who have sex with men 13 to 18 years old in the United States.

The COVID-19 pandemic has disrupted sexual health services among those most vulnerable to HIV acquisition, such as adolescent men who have sex with men (AMSM). We sought to characterize the changes in sexual-risk behaviors, HIV and other STI testing, and pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP) use among a longitudinal cohort of AMSM aged 13 to 18 years before and during the COVID-19 pandemic. We observed a significant decline in HIV testing and a marginal decrease in other STI testing since the pandemic began in March 2020. Outreach efforts and innovative remote delivery of sexual health services are needed to support access to healthcare services among AMSM as the pandemic persists.

RESUMEN: La pandemia de COVID-19 ha afectado la prestación de servicios de salud sexual para los más vulnerables, tales como los hombres adolescentes que tienen relaciones sexuales con hombres (AMSM; por sus siglas en ingles). En una cohorte longitudinal de AMSM de 13 a 18 años, examinamos los cambios en comportamientos sexuales de alto riesgo, la prueba de VIH, las pruebas de otras enfermedades de transmisión sexual, y el uso de Profilaxis Preexposición (PrEP) para el VIH antes y durante la pandemia. Desde el inicio de la pandemia en marzo de 2020, observamos una disminución significativa en la frecuencia de pruebas de VIH y una disminución marginal en la frecuencia de pruebas de otras enfermedades de transmisión sexual. Mientras persista la pandemia, serán necesarios más esfuerzos de divulgación e innovaciones en la prestación remota de servicios de salud sexual para apoyar el acceso a dichos servicios por parte de AMSM.

Longitudinal mediation by perceived burden of the pathway from thwarted belonging to suicidal ideation.

INTRODUCTION: Whereas the interpersonal theory of suicide entails the assumption that thwarted belongingness and perceived burdensomeness are equally important, mutually moderating, proximal causes of active ideation, evidence suggests these may not be co-moderating processes. We tested an alternative perspective, hypothesizing that burden mediates the longitudinal relationship of thwarted belonging with active ideation. METHODS: A 6-week, four-wave prospective online survey was completed by 298 undergraduates. We tested cross-sectional and cross-lagged panel models (CLPM, with and without random effects) with belonging, burden, and ideation at 2-week lags, and post hoc models with burden as a concurrent mediator of ideation. RESULTS: Approximately 28% of undergraduates reported active ideation at baseline. Cross-sectionally, thwarted belonging had no direct influence on ideation but indirectly affected ideation via burden. This result was not confirmed in the 2-week CLPM analyses. In post hoc analyses, we found belonging operated indirectly via later burden to influence contemporaneous ideation. CONCLUSIONS: Findings suggest thwarted belonging influences active ideation indirectly via perceived burden. The effect of burden as a mediator appears to depend on its temporal proximity to ideation. Future research should delimit the period during which perceived burden is an active mediator, accommodate dual-process approaches, and explore other mediation alternatives to co-moderation.

Efficacy and safety of modified BLd therapy for Japanese patients with transplant-ineligible multiple myeloma.

The BLd regimen, which is a triplet regimen of bortezomib (Bor), lenalidomide (Len), and dexamethasone (Dex), is effective against newly diagnosed multiple myeloma (NDMM). However, non-hematological toxicities, such as peripheral neuropathy (PN), often hamper long-term continuation of the regimen, particularly in older adult patients. In this study, we examined the efficacy and safety of the modified BLd regimen with reduced-intensity Bor and standard-dose Len. The chemotherapy regimen consisted of 1.3 mg/m2 Bor administered subcutaneously on days 1 and 8, 25 mg Len administered on days 1-14, and 20 mg Dex on days 1-2 and 8-9 of a 3 week cycle for 8 cycles, followed by a 4 week cycle of Dex (40 mg weekly). Among the 30 patients enrolled, 60.0% (95% CI 40.6-77.3) had a very good partial response or better, and the best overall response rate was 96.7% (95% CI 82.8-99.9). Eight patients (26.7%) achieved a complete response. Grade 3 or higher PN was not observed and hematological toxicity was the most common adverse event. The modified BLd regimen showed favorable efficacy with a manageable safety profile, which suggests it could be a treatment option for transplant-ineligible NDMM.

Psychopathological symptoms as precursors of depressive symptoms in adolescence: a prospective analysis of the GINIplus and LISA birth cohort studies.

INTRODUCTION: Depressive symptoms are highly prevalent in adolescence, highlighting the need for early identification of precursors. Research into psychopathological symptoms predicting depressive psychopathology in adolescents is therefore of great relevance. Moreover, given that the prevalence of depressive symptomatology in adolescence shows marked differences between girls and boys, insight into potential sex-specific differences in precursors is important. METHODS: This study examined the relationships between emotional problems, conduct problems, hyperactivity/inattention, peer problems, and difficulties in prosocial behaviour at age 10 (Strengths and Difficulties Questionnaire), and the presence of depressive symptoms at age 15 (Depression Screener for Teenagers). Using data from 2824 participants of the GINIplus and LISA birth cohorts, the association of each SDQ subscale at age 10 years with the presence of depressive symptoms at age 15 years was analyzed using sex-specific logistic regression, adjusting for potential confounders. RESULTS: Emotional problems [odds ratio (OR) 1.99, p = 0.002 for boys and OR 1.77, p < 0.001 for girls] and peer problems (OR 2.62, p < 0.001 for boys, OR 1.91, p = 0.001 for girls) at age 10 showed an increased risk for the presence of depressive symptoms at age 15. Additionally, boys with conduct problems at age 10 were at greater risk of showing depressive symptoms in adolescence (OR 2.50, p < 0.001). DISCUSSION: Based on the identified prospective relationships in our study, it might be of particular importance to tailor prevention approaches during childhood to peer and emotional problems to reduce the risk of depressive psychopathology in adolescence. Moreover, particularly in boys, it seems important to also target conduct problems in childhood as a precursor of depressive symptoms in the adolescent period.

Predictive value of topoisomerase II alpha protein for clinicopathological characteristics and prognosis in early breast cancer.

PURPOSE: Topoisomerase II alpha (TOP2A) has been identified as a proliferation marker, of which the most common method for detection is immunohistochemistry (IHC). However, the optimal cut-off of TOP2A expression regarding prognostic value remains controversial. This study was to identify the optimal cut-off value of TOP2A expression and its correlation with clinicopathological variables and prognosis in early stage breast cancer in China. METHODS: Between January 2013 and January 2015, a total of 1084 early breast cancer patients were enrolled. The optimal cut-off of TOP2A expression was assessed using the minimum P value approach. Correlations between TOP2A expression and clinicopathological characteristics were explored by the Spearman's correlation analysis, while the impact of TOP2A expression on disease-free survival (DFS) and overall survival (OS) was evaluated by the Kaplan-Meier methods. Univariate and multivariate Cox regression analyses were executed to identify statistically significant prognostic factors. RESULTS: The optimal cut-off value of TOP2A was recommended as 15%. Overall, 603 (55.6%) patients were TOP2A over-expression and 481 (44.4%) patients were TOP2A low expression. TOP2A over-expression was in positive associations with a higher Ki67 index (r = 0.83, P < 0.001), HER2 positive (r = 0.26, P < 0.001), a larger tumor size (r = 0.14, P < 0.001), and a higher histologic grade (r = 0.59, P < 0.001), and in a significantly negative correlation with hormone receptor (HR) positive expression (r = - 0.40, P < 0.001) in early breast cancer. TOP2A over-expression significantly associated with worse DFS (P = 0.001) and OS (P < 0.001) and was an independent prognostic factor for both DFS (hazard ratio [HR] = 2.04; 95% confidence interval [95% CI] 1.30-3.18, P = 0.0018) and OS (HR = 3.54; 95%CI 1.53-8.23, P = 0.003) in stage I-II breast cancer patients. CONCLUSION: To our knowledge, this is the first study to recommend the optimal cut-off value of TOP2A expression in breast cancer. The TOP2A expression is significantly correlated with HER2 status, Ki67 index, tumor size, histologic grade and HR status, and could be a surrogate indicator for poor prognosis of early breast cancer.

Association Between Neuroticism and Risk of Lung Cancer: Results From Observational and Mendelian Randomization Analyses.

BACKGROUND: It remains undetermined whether neuroticism affects the risk of lung cancer. Therefore, we performed complementary observational and Mendelian randomization (MR) analyses to investigate the association between neuroticism and lung cancer risk. METHODS: We included 364,451 UK Biobank participants free of cancer at baseline. Neuroticism was ascertained using the 12-item of Eysenck Personality Inventory Neuroticism Scale. Multivariable Cox regression models were used to calculate hazard ratios (HRs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs). Two-sample MR analysis was carried out with summary genetic data from UK Biobank (374,323 individuals) and International Lung Cancer Consortium (29,266 lung cancer cases and 56,450 controls). Furthermore, we calculated a polygenic risk score of lung cancer, and examined the joint-effect and interaction between neuroticism and genetic susceptibility on lung cancer risk. RESULTS: During a median follow-up of 7.13 years, 1573 lung cancer cases were documented. After adjusting for smoking and other confounders, higher neuroticism was associated with an increased risk of lung cancer (HR per 1 SD=1.07, 95% CI: 1.02-1.12). Consistently, MR analysis suggested a causal effect of neuroticism on lung cancer risk (OR IVW=1.10, 95% CI: 1.03-1.17). Compared to individuals with low neuroticism and low PRS, those with both high neuroticism and high PRS had the greatest risk of lung cancer (HR=1.82, 95%CI: 1.51-2.20). Furthermore, there was a positive additive but no multiplicative interaction between neuroticism and genetic risk. CONCLUSIONS: Our findings suggest that neuroticism is associated with an elevated risk of incident lung cancer, which is strengthened by the genetic susceptibility to lung cancer. Further studies are necessary to elucidate underlying mechanisms.

The role of smoking and alcohol in mediating the effect of gastroesophageal reflux disease on lung cancer: A Mendelian randomization study.

Observational studies have suggested a positive association between gastroesophageal reflux disease and lung cancer, but due to the existence of confounders, it remains undetermined whether gastroesophageal reflux disease (GERD) has a causal association with lung cancer. Therefore, Mendelian randomization (MR) analyses were applied to investigate the relationship between the two conditions. Two-sample Mendelian randomization analysis was utilized with summary genetic data from the European Bioinformatics Institute (602,604 individuals) and International Lung Cancer Consortium, which provides information on lung cancer and its histological subgroups. Furthermore, we used two-step Mendelian randomization and multivariable Mendelian randomization to estimate whether smoking initiation (311,629 cases and 321,173 controls) and alcohol intake frequency (n = 462,346) mediate any effect of gastroesophageal reflux disease on lung cancer risk. The Mendelian randomization analyses indicated that gastroesophageal reflux disease was associated with and significantly increased the risk of lung cancer (ORIVW = 1.35, 95% CI = 1.18-1.54; p = 1.36 × 10-5). Smoking initiation and alcohol intake frequency mediated 35% and 3% of the total effect of gastroesophageal reflux disease on lung cancer, respectively. The combined effect of these two factors accounted for 60% of the total effect. In conclusion, gastroesophageal reflux disease is associated with an increased risk of lung cancer, and interventions to reduce smoking and alcohol intake may reduce the incidence of lung cancer.

Prospective association between depressive symptoms and stroke risk among middle-aged and older Chinese.

BACKGROUND: This study aimed to assess the association between baseline symptoms and changes in depressive symptoms and stroke incidents. METHODS: We used data from the Chinese Health and Retirement Longitudinal Study conducted in 2013, 2015, and 2018. In total, 10,100 individuals aged ≥45 years and without a history of stroke in 2013 were included. Depressive symptoms were measured using the 10-item version of the Center for Epidemiological Studied Depression scale (elevated depressive symptoms cutoff ≥10). Changes of depressive symptoms were assessed by two successive surveys (stable low/no, recent onset, recently remitted, and stable high depressive symptoms). We assessed whether baseline depressive symptoms and changes of them were associated with stroke incidents reported through 2018. Logistic regression analyses adjusted for age, gender, education, marital status and other potential confounders were performed. RESULTS: For the analysis of baseline depressive symptoms and stroke (n = 10,100), 545 (5.4%) reported stroke incidents in the following 5-year period. Individuals with elevated depressive symptoms in 2013 experienced a markedly higher stroke risk (odds ratio (OR) = 1.53, 95% confidence interval (CI) = 1.28-1.84) compared with those without elevated depressive symptoms. In the analysis of changes in depressive symptoms (n = 8491, 430 (5.1%) stroke events), participants with stable high (OR = 2.01, 95% CI = 1.58-2.56) and recent-onset (OR = 1.39, 95% CI = 1.04-1.85) depressive symptoms presented higher stroke risk compared to those with stable low/no depressive symptoms, while recently remitted symptoms (OR = 1.12, 95% CI = 0.80-1.57) were not associated with stroke risk. CONCLUSIONS: In conclusion, stable high and newly started depressive symptoms were associated with increased stroke risk, whereas the improvement of depressive symptoms was not related to increase in stroke risk, suggesting that stroke risk may be decreased by effective management of depressive symptoms.

Land-use Decisions in Complex Commons: Engaging Multiple Stakeholders through Foresight and Scenario Building in Indonesia.

In the midst of global change uncertainties, Indonesian spatial planning authorities are developing 20-year strategies. However, the lack of collaborative engagement of stakeholders and unclear methodology around using futures studies in addressing land management undermine such plans and affect environmental governance. A crucial question is how to link a future-oriented process with governance transformation processes, particularly related to land-use planning and management. To address this issue, we used a co-elaborative scenario-building approach, referred to as participatory prospective analysis (PPA), to facilitate the creation of local multistakeholder platforms considering future-oriented perspectives. The PPA design combines equally the knowledge of local communities, technical experts and decision-makers, and was applied in a series of sequential multistakeholder workshops in two regencies in Indonesia, followed by public consultations on the main results. In both regencies, participants agreed on a common topic related to spatial planning in their jurisdiction to be explored with a 20-year time horizon. They reached consensus on relevant variables, analyzed their dependence/influence, and developed several plausible yet contrasting scenarios for land management and road maps with guidelines for the implementation of desired outcomes. The PPA approach stimulated stakeholder engagement and ensured that more local voices were not only heard but also duly included in the process. It allowed participants to consider strategies that would otherwise have been less readily accepted by their respective organizations. It showed that it is possible to improve existing spatial planning processes in Indonesia by integrating tools for a more inclusive and long-term future-oriented collaborative approach.

Mediterranean Diet and Risk of Dementia and Alzheimer's Disease in the EPIC-Spain Dementia Cohort Study.

The Mediterranean diet (MD) has shown to reduce the occurrence of several chronic diseases. To evaluate its potential protective role on dementia incidence we studied 16,160 healthy participants from the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition (EPIC)-Spain Dementia Cohort study recruited between 1992-1996 and followed up for a mean (±SD) of 21.6 (±3.4) years. A total of 459 incident cases of dementia were ascertained through expert revision of medical records. Data on habitual diet was collected through a validated diet history method to assess adherence to the relative Mediterranean Diet (rMED) score. Hazard ratios (HR) of dementia by rMED levels (low, medium and high adherence levels: ≤6, 7-10 and ≥11 points, respectively) were estimated using multivariable Cox models, whereas time-dependent effects were evaluated using flexible parametric Royston-Parmar (RP) models. Results of the fully adjusted model showed that high versus low adherence to the categorical rMED score was associated with a 20% (HR = 0.80, 95%CI: 0.60-1.06) lower risk of dementia overall and HR of dementia was 8% (HR = 0.92, 0.85-0.99, p = 0.021) lower for each 2-point increment of the continuous rMED score. By sub-types, a favorable association was also found in women for non-AD (HR per 2-points = 0.74, 95%CI: 0.62-0.89), while not statistically significant in men for AD (HR per 2-points = 0.88, 0.76-1.01). The association was stronger in participants with lower education. In conclusion, in this large prospective cohort study MD was inversely associated with dementia incidence after accounting for major cardiovascular risk factors. The results differed by dementia sub-type, sex, and education but there was no significant evidence of effect modification.

Prospective analyses of testosterone and sex hormone-binding globulin with the risk of 19 types of cancer in men and postmenopausal women in UK Biobank.

We investigated the associations of estimated free and total circulating testosterone and sex hormone-binding globulin (SHBG) with cancer risk in men and postmenopausal women, using a pan-cancer approach, including 19 cancers in UK Biobank. Risk was estimated using multivariable-adjusted Cox regression in up to 182 608 men and 122 112 postmenopausal women who were cancer-free at baseline. Participants diagnosed with cancer within 2 years of baseline were excluded. Hazard ratios (HRs) and confidence intervals (CIs) were corrected for regression dilution bias using repeat measurements. We accounted for multiple testing using the false discovery rate. In men, higher free testosterone was associated with higher risks of melanoma and prostate cancer (HR per 50 pmol/L increase = 1.35, 95% CI 1.14-1.61 and 1.10, 1.04-1.18, respectively). Higher total testosterone was associated with an elevated risk of liver cancer (HR per 5 nmol/L = 2.45, 1.56-3.84), and higher SHBG was associated with a higher risk of liver cancer (HR per 10 nmol/L = 1.56, 1.31-1.87) and a lower risk of prostate cancer (0.93, 0.91-0.96); the associations with liver cancer were partially attenuated after excluding men diagnosed within 4.7 years from baseline. In postmenopausal women, free and total testosterone and SHBG were associated with risks of endometrial (HR per 10 pmol/L = 1.59, 1.32-1.90; HR per 0.5 nmol/L = 1.34, 1.18-1.52 and HR per 25 nmol/L = 0.78, 0.67-0.91, respectively) and breast cancer (1.32, 1.22-1.43; 1.24, 1.17-1.31 and 0.88, 0.83-0.94, respectively). We report a novel association of free testosterone with malignant melanoma in men, and confirm known associations between testosterone and risks for prostate, breast and endometrial cancers. The association with liver cancer in men may be attributable to reverse causation.